Home Forex Analysis And Forecasts Aussie consolidates after strong rally; n/t focus is turning higher

Aussie consolidates after strong rally; n/t focus is turning higher


The Euro continues to trade within three-day 1.0673/1.0788 range, in consolidation mode, following recent weakness. Fresh attempts lower, on completion of consolidative phase are expected, as overall structure remains firmly bearish.
Consolidation was so far capped under psychological 1.08 barrier, former breakpoint, guarding strong resistance zone at 1.0844/63, formed by falling daily 10SMA /Tenkan-sen line, where extended rallies should be capped.
Immediate targets lay at 1.0664/58, 21/24 Apr low, followed by 1.0611, 261.8% Fibonacci expansion of the downleg from 1.1071.

Res: 1.0788; 1.0800; 1.0844; 1.0863
Sup: 1.0732; 1.0700; 1.0673; 1.0658


Yesterday’s strong rally marks the second leg of recovery action that commenced from 1.5026, 06 Nov low. Rally cracked pivotal barrier at 1.52 zone yesterday, former low of 13 Oct / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5495/1.5025 downleg and closed marginally above higher.
This gave positive signal for today’s fresh extension higher, which peaked at 1.5244, capped by falling daily 10SMA. The pair faces strong resistance zone that lies ahead and starts with daily Kijun-sen line at 1.5260, followed by daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.5288 and daily 20/30 SMA, attempting to form bear-cross at 1.5307.
Extended upside attempts are likely to be capped at this zone, as overall picture of larger timeframes remains bearish.
Scenario of lower top formation, ideally under daily Ichimoku cloud base, remains favored for fresh attempts towards 1.5026 lows and psychological 1.5000 support, in extension.
Alternative scenario requires daily close above 1.53 handle, to sideline existing downside risk.

Res: 1.5219; 1.5244; 1.5260; 1.5288
Sup: 1.5160; 1.5131; 1.5109; 1.5056


The pair remains in near-term correction off 123.59 peak, posted on 09 Nov. Yesterday’s close in red, confirms correction, after two previous days were shaped in Dojis. Corrective action on oversold daily studies, should be ideally contained at 122.30 zone, double-Fibonacci support, 23.6% of 118.05/123.59 and 38.2% of 120.24/123.59 upleg, before fresh attempts at 123.59 high and 124.14 target, peak of 2007, in extension.

Res: 123.21; 123.42; 123.59; 124.14
Sup: 122.73; 122.30; 121.91; 121.52


Aussie rallied strongly on upbeat Australian jobs data and broke above three-day congestion. Near-term base is forming at 0.7014, with fresh acceleration higher, attacking daily 20SMA at 0.7153, ahead of daily Ichimoku cloud top at 0.7170. Daily close above here is needed to confirm near-term bulls are fully back in play, for test of pivot at 0.7222, lower top of 04 Nov.
Daily slow Stochastic has reversed from oversold territory and supports fresh upside action, with other daily indicators are turning north.
Consolidation of strong rally, on overbought near-term studies, could be expected, with 0.71 handle, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7014/0.7152 upleg, reinforced by daily 10SMA, expected to contain and keep freshly established near-term bulls intact.

Res: 0.7153; 0.7170; 0.7197; 0.7222
Sup: 0.7128; 0.7100; 0.7076; 0.7046




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