The Euro is looking to the results of last week’s ECB bond purchases for direction. The US Dollar came under pressure to start the trading week.

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Drops to Start the Week as Asia Reacts to Disappointing Payrolls
  • Euro Looks to ECB Covered Bond Purchase Results for Direction Guidance
  • BOE Governor Carney May Stoke Japanese Yen and British Pound Volatility

The US Dollar underperformed to start the week, tracking Treasury bond yields as Asian markets took their turn to react to last week’s disappointing Employment figures. The report showed a 214,000 payrolls increase in October, disappointing expectations calling for a 235,000 gain and hinting the Federal Reserve may move slower to issue its first post-QE3 interest rate hike.

Looking ahead, the European Central Bank is in spotlight as it reports the size of last week’s covered bond purchases. The first week of the program saw a mere €1.7 billion in uptake, which the markets seemed to judge as far too small to meaningfully counter deflationary pressure in the currency. With that in mind, a similar outcome this time around would suggest the ECB may be aiming to make a habit of this tepid pace, which might boost the Euro. Alternatively, a noticeably larger effort stands to weigh on the single currency.

Also of note, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to speak at a press briefing in Basel ahead of the Brisbane G20 summit. Commentary touching on global growth trends at large may carry implications for risk appetite and sentiment-sensitive currencies including the Japanese Yen (with dour rhetoric set to boost the safe-haven unit, and vice versa). Signs of increased worry about spillover effects from a hobbled Eurozone economy may likewise punish the British Pound amid ebbing BOE rate hike bets.

Critical Levels
CCY Supp 3 Supp 2 Supp 1 Pivot Point Res 1 Res 2 Res 3
EURUSD 1.2204 1.2316 1.2385 1.2428 1.2497 1.254 1.2652
GBPUSD 1.5657 1.5753 1.5811 1.5849 1.5907 1.5945 1.6041