Home Forex Analysis And Forecasts Euro to Look Past German CPI, US Dollar Looks to 4Q GDP...

Euro to Look Past German CPI, US Dollar Looks to 4Q GDP Revision

The Euro is likely to overlook German CPI data as the launch of ECB QE looms ahead. The US Dollar looks to revised US GDP data to inform Fed speculation.

Talking Points:

  • Euro Unlikely to Find Fuel in German CPI Data as ECB QE Launch Looms

  • Larger-Than-Expected US GDP Markdown May Send US Dollar Downward

  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Germany’s flash CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to remain in negative territory, showing a 0.3 percent drawdown in February following a 0.4 percent decline in the prior month. The outcome is unlikely to trigger a meaningful response the Euro considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy outlook as the central bank prepares to launch QE next month.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the second revision of four-quarter US GDP figures. The annualized growth reading is expected to be revised down to 2 percent from the initially-reported estimate of 2.6 percent. US news-flow has tended to underperform relative to forecasts in recent months, warning of a larger mark-down in the cards. Such a result may trim Fed interest rate hike expectations and weigh on the US Dollar.

The greenback faced broad-based selling pressure overnight, falling as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appeared corrective in the context of yesterday’s aggressive rally that produced the largest daily advance in a month. That move followed January’s CPI data that showed a larger than expected monthly rise in core inflation while a separate report showed real Average Hourly Earnings jumped 1.2 percent last month, marking the largest increase since November 2008.

Critical Levels
CCY Supp 3 Supp 2 Supp 1 Pivot Point Res 1 Res 2 Res 3
EURUSD 1.0862 1.1058 1.1128 1.1254 1.1324 1.1450 1.1646
GBPUSD 1.5137 1.5294 1.5350 1.5451 1.5507 1.5608 1.5765
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