The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Time to give a little something back. The move lower has again slowed. This could of course be just another bearish consolidation, but from here it looks more like a near-term ‘Round-bottom’, following a full minor bearish 5-wave sequence. If this assumption is correct, recovery to least 1.3145/53 should materialize. On the downside 1.3104 is still a medium-term ref to keep in mind. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.3080 & 1.3175.


USD/JPY: Sellers seems to respond at target. Sellers seem to respond at the 261.8% Fibo projection ref acting both as objective (reached) and resistance (respected). Conditions are stretched and a drop back to test at least yesterday’s 104.72 mid-body point or even the supportive 8day ‘Tenkan-Sen’, now at 104.50 seems likely. Key support in this timeframe is located another 100pips below at 103.53/50. Key resistance is placed at 105.45. Current intraday stretches are located at 104.65 & 105.40.


GBP/USD: Big drop shows more supply coming. The pair has come along way since the mid-Jul best and supply is still hitting the market. With the late-Mar reaction low of 1.6460 also violated there should be more coming this way. The current short-term stretch is located at 1.6400 and is falling fast with the underlying move in spot. It should be tested after a near-term correctional bounce into nearby resistance at 1.6501/1.6538. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.6430 & 1.6545.


AUD/USD: Soon to break the neckline. More and more factors is supporting a soon washout of the AUD. The head and shoulders top formation, the repeated rejections from the 55d ma band, the collapsing iron ore prices and more are all parts helping to build a bearish case. There should nevertheless be some struggle around the neckline before the bulls will be defeated and the pair free to fall.


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