The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, and USD/CAD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: A weekly major break lower. With additional selling on Friday prices broke and closed below the March support line, the floor of the large bear flag. The break now suggests that we have left the seven months long correction having resumed the longer term underlying bear trend. The next key support is 1.0869- 1.0808. Short term there is however a growing risk for at least a minor reaction higher. Lower the stop from 1.1510 to 1.1306.
EUR/JPY: Ready to challenge the key support. The break last week has highlighted the forthcoming test of the very important 132/133 support zone. Given the pattern of repeatedly falling tops the potential for a successful break lower must be regarded relatively high. Short term we see potential for a 133.40 – 134.20 consolidation before taking the next step down to test the key support zone.
GBP/USD: Small pause then lower again. After a small uptick to 1.5418 the pair embarked on the announced journey south. The step decline also made the week end with a bearish weekly candle underpinning our view of more losses to come. Short term we might see some consolidation at the floor of the late Sep support line but probably not for long. Last week’s sell signal clearly argues for the pair to soon be scrutinizing the support at 1.5107.
USD/CAD: Seek a sell north of 1.32. The ongoing move higher looks like a correction at least if you trust a higher tier wave count arguing for a correctional wave-B in the making. A short-term 61.8% Fibo retracement ref and the high end of the short-term “Cloud” at 1.3218\35 might be the resistance we are looking for to attract better selling, so stay alert for be prints in the neighborhood and or a bearish print taking out trendline support, now at 1.3090. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.3055 & 1.3250.
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