Home Forex Analysis And Forecasts Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP - SEB

Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP – SEB

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD , and EUR/GBP as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Another spike above 1.13. With yesterday’s rejected move up above 1.1380 a five wave pattern from the late May low was completed and hence a consolidation/correction phase has begun. Ideally the pair should now slide back towards primarily 1.1226 – 1.1214.


NZD/USD: Initially lower, then bouncing. Contrary to our view RBNZ did cut the OCR by 25bps thereby triggering a new round of Kiwi-selling (overrunning the bullish engulfing candle from earlier in the week). However given that we again are moving into stretched conditions and with MACD still oversold and narrowing we see this move lower as short term temporary (the NZD/USD trend is without doubt down but the short term conditions aren’t the best for an immediate continuation) so look for a sub 0.70 dip and then a rebound.


USD/JPY: Mid-body re-test before lower. The market sank deep yesterday, but found some support at the lower end of the 21day exponentially weighted moving average band, Fibo stuff and the 21day "Kijun-Sen" at ~122.40/35. A 123.50 mid-body re-test or even a test of old support at 123.75 is absolutely possible, but it ought to be followed by more selling and steer the pair back to support. If also losing grip of a mid-Mar high of 122.04, a more.


EUR/GBP: New attempt to put C in place. Our assumption of wave C having been put in place has been challenged but again (this time 2.5 points above the first attempt) the market sold the 78.6% Fibo point, the ideal target for wave C (if continuing to build the bearish triangle). A break below Monday’s low, 0.7267 should now trigger additional selling and a continued journey towards the 0.7127-area.


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