The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Still a clouded view. Another downside attempt occurred on Friday but again buyers were quick to respond returning prices back higher, this time also with a long downside spike. The failure below the preceding day’s low (and the 2nd straight failure below the mid body point of the June 08 bullish candle, 1.1201) make a move higher for today a tad more likely than the opposite. Overall uncertainty however remains high.
USD/JPY: Still below the mid body pt. 123.49. Also on Friday we saw the market pushing rates above 123.49 only to later sink back and close below the mid body point of Wednesday’s falling benchmark candle. The market also printed its fifth consecutive lower high showing active sellers on up ticks. If also today follows the past days behavior (a lower high and spiking above the mid body point) a test of the 122.04 key support (Mar top) will gain a lot of confidence.
NZD/USD: An exaggerated decline. The pair is in our eyes very stretched (again outside the 55d Bollinger bands) and oversold (MACD divergences) so an upside reaction will probably occur sooner than later. Remember that the positioning (CoT short NZD) is at record levels so there will be ample demand once a correction getting legs. The hourly chart shows a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern so caution breaking above 0.70.
USD/CAD: Eyeing resistance at 1.2355\78. The market is back eyeing resistance (short-term pivot, high end of the 55day exponentially weighted moving average band, "Cloud" high & average 5day high) in the 1.2355\78- area. Bullishly above all those would set focus back on the 1.2563 "Double-top". Current intraday stretches are located at 1.2230 & 1.2410 – so there is decent room to maneuver intradaily both up and down from here.
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