Home Forex Analysis And Forecasts Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/NZD - SEB

Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/NZD – SEB

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, and AUD/NZD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Eyeing next the 1985 support line. As the pair yesterday fell below the negatively sloped trend line from 2008 (1.0630) there’s scope for the pair to extend the losses also down to the 1985 support line (1.0290-ish). The stretch measured as the difference between the spot price and the 233d ma is now the third biggest since 1975. Short term the pressure is perhaps easing some with the latest hourly break lower (1.0511) so far not leading to any substantial drop.

EURUSD

USD/JPY: Downside risks are mounting. The false upside break is clearly imposing a downside threat to the pair and especially so as the move above 121.86 fulfilled, very marginally but nevertheless, an absolute minimum target for the Dec bull triangle. In an hourly chart there’s more bits and pieces pointing to a mounting downside risk (sellers are more aggressive than the buyers, volumes are greater during down hours and there’s a potential inverse head and shoulders top (neckline at 121.00). Early birds should sell a 121.15 break.

USDJPY

USD/CAD: Correcting lower. The pair initially extended the advance above 1.2698, reaching the Jan peak, 1.2800, before stalling and beginning a delayed wave four correction. The ongoing reaction will primarily be aiming at 1.2699 but deeper alternatives are also a viable option with 1.2664 and 1.2598 as alternative targets. Returning above 1.2768 and the correction is over and a break of 1.2800 underway.

USDCAD

AUD/NZD: Sellers at the Feb mid-body point. The short-term (Fibo-adjusted) "Cloud" retains a negative tilt as does the (not shown) 12mt moving average band. The Feb bearish candle holds mid-body resistance at 1.0520 and it was at large respected this week. Selling seems fierce right now and a near-term stretch is currently violated, but it also proves supply, making the early Mar low of 1.0285 exposes once more. Mid-body resistance likely around 1.0450.

AUDNZD

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