The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Rise still not completed. During the past three weeks (all net gainers) the selling has become weaker (the weekly topside spikes are becoming smaller and smaller) hence making it easier to take the step up above 1.1468. The market also during the latest CoT reporting period continued to decrease the short euro position (which since the lows basically has been cut in half). So all in all look for a move up into the 1.1468 – 1.1534 resistance zone.
USD/JPY: Still a clear downside risk. Last week ended with a bearish undertone posting the second consecutive weekly loss. The latest CoT report also shows that the recent buyers now are in doubt and hence last week did cut the short yen position with one third. A break below the 122.46/122.04 support is still a clear risk and such a development could easily push the pair deeper into the Dec/May range.
USD/CAD: A correctional low in place? Thu’s lower “Shadow” and bullish follow-through on Fri, hint of a correctional low in place, but for this to be fully confirmed, a move through resistance at 1.2361\78 is needed. – But if so, later extension to and through the 1.2563 "Double-top" should be penciled in too. A drop back under 1.2216 is ideally not wanted to keep bullish faith undented. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.2165 & 1.2350.
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