The following are the intraday outlooks for USD Index, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and Brent Crude as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
USD INDEX: Keeping a close eye at 93.25. Yesterday’s decline was perhaps an indication that there might be more dollar selling in the pipeline and especially so if the market break and end the week below 93.25. Such a development could easily trigger enough profit taking selling to push the price down to the 55d ma band.
EUR/USD: Bear flag didn’t play out. The anticipated bear flag never reached and broke its confirmation point at 1.1262, on the contrary the move back up above 1.1399 indicated that we were on the wrong footing. A possible outcome is that we now will see a test of the former floor of the falling channel, 1.1535, (alternatively an extended move to 1.1578) and then a new attempt to try to form a correction high.
AUD/USD: Should stretch out for 0.7959. There should, given the bullish spring bottom three days ago (spring bottoms should deliver a positive result no later than day three after the spring) there’s clearly potential for a break higher today. Clearing the 0.7850/60 resistance, which we currently seems to be doing, will set a primary correction target at 0.7959.
Brent Crude: Bullish "Flag" vs. bearish "Cloud"…To be honest; we can see this market move quite a bit higher or stall the correction at the low end of dynamic resistance coming with the low end of the bearish "Cloud". A prior high and the 21day "Kijun-Sen" prevented decline yesterday and this makes the odds even between mentioned resistance and a growing possibility for a bullish "Flag" in the making. So a double 54\60 watch is the best we can recommend at the moment.
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