EUR/CHF should come under renewed pressure this week, again testing below 1.2050, as Thursday’s policy meeting nears. While few expect any change in the EUR/CHF 1.20 peg, many are now keenly focussed upon whether the SNB has undertaken any currency intervention.
Given recent price action in NOK and AUD, we speculate that the SNB may have already been in the market (i.e. buying EUR/CHF and diversify some of those EUR’s into other currencies).
Unfortunately, with the next SNB Bulletin September 22nd, only showing July data, such speculation will remain unsatiated for another month.
Beyond the SNB, Swiss producer prices will be of secondary focus. A slow-down in Europe appears likely to remain the dominant theme for prices in Q4 and we thus expect a further decline in the August numbers Tuesday.
From a Terms of Trade perspective however, this import price decline should indirectly aide ongoing trade balance improvement (prev. CHF4bn surplus).
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