17 February 2015, EUR/USD
The pair euro/dollar closed the session with a decrease. The German ZEW institute report is forecasted with the Germany business sentiment growth, the euro zone (PMI) and the leading countries activity index also supposed to show positive changes in the growth zone above 50.0, the February consumer sentiment index is expected with a growth to -7.6 from the previous – 8.5.
The pair euro/dollar consolidation has continued for three weeks after falling to the fresh lows at the level of 1.1100-1.1120. After testing this level, the pair rebounded to 1.1520-1.1540. Now the rate fluctuations are between the resistance 1.1440-1.1460 and the support near 1.1320-1.1340.
The support levels are 1.1320-1.1340, and the resistance levels are 1.1440-1.1460.
MACD is in a neutral territory.
The level of 1.1320-1.1340 breakthrough may lead to the level of 1.1200-1.1220 testing. While the pair is trading below the 1.1520-1.1540 risks of renewed fall will be high.
The British pound held trades in the lateral narrow range against the dollar but then the pair decreased. The unemployment rate is expected with a slight decline, calculated by the ILO method – to 5.7% from 5.8%0 which is also on the "cable" good mood side. However, the most influential data may come from the Bank of England “minutes” release. The bears tried to regain control of the situation. The pound managed to consolidate above the broken through 52nd figure which later allowed it to break through the resistance around 1.5280-1.5300 and rise to 1.5415-1.5435. Then the pair fell and tested the support level of 1.5330-1.5350.
The support levels: 1.5330-1.5350 and the resistance levels: 1.5415-1.5435.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
Rebounds downwards can be limited by the support near 1.5280-1.5300 and the support around 1.5200-1.5220.
The Japanese yen consolidated against the dollar, but finished with a little growth. We got the fourth quarter GDP data. The index showed a growth lower than expected – by 0.6% q/q after -0.6% q/q previously when it was expected substantial increase – by 0.9% q/q. The pair USD/JPY continued to grow having tested the resistance near 120.20-120.40. Still the Bank of Japan with its comments triggered profit-taking on the short positions which led to the pair decrease to the level of 119.05-119.25. This level was broken and pair is falling towards to the support level of 117.95-118.15.
The support levels: 117.95-118.15, and the resistance levels: 119.25-119.45.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
Rebounds have limited character and continue to attract interest for sale that keeps the risks of the further pair decrease towards the 117th figure. Its breakthrough will allow bears to test the support near 116.95-117.15. However, while the pair is trading above 117.95-118.15, we should not exclude its growth resumption.